Terror in the Valley: An In-Depth Look at the Pahalgam Attack

Key Points

• The recent Kashmir event likely refers to the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam attack, killing 26, mostly tourists, with The Resistance Front (TRF) claiming responsibility, linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba.
• Research suggests the attack targeted non-Muslims, aiming to disrupt tourism and protest demographic changes in Kashmir, amid India-Pakistan tensions.
• The Indian government responded with measures like suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and downgrading ties with Pakistan, while international leaders condemned the violence.
• The evidence leans toward increased regional instability, affecting tourism and security, with potential for further escalation.

Overview

On April 22, 2025, a tragic terror attack occurred in Pahalgam, Kashmir, killing 26 people, mostly tourists, and injuring several others. This event, claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, has reignited concerns about security and stability in the region. Below, we explore the details, background, and implications, keeping the discussion approachable and acknowledging the complexity of the situation.

Details of the Attack

The attack took place at Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, a popular tourist spot, around 2:50 PM. Gunmen, dressed in military-style uniforms, opened fire, targeting non-Muslim tourists by asking them to recite the kalma and checking for circumcisions. The death toll included 25 Indians and one Nepalese, with casualties from various states like Karnataka and Kerala. At least 17 were wounded, some critically.

Background and Context

Kashmir has been a contested region since 1947, with India and Pakistan claiming it, leading to wars and an insurgency since 1989. In 2019, India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, integrating it more fully, which sparked protests and international concern. The attack seems linked to TRF’s opposition to perceived demographic changes, like issuing domicile status to non-locals, amid ongoing tensions.

Perpetrators and Motives

TRF, emerging in 2019 and backed by Pakistan’s ISI, claimed responsibility, citing resistance to demographic shifts. Initial findings suggest five to seven terrorists, including locals trained in Pakistan, were involved, with Saifullah Kasuri (LeT) and Asif Fauji (TRF) as key figures. The motive appears to disrupt tourism and protest Indian policies, escalating India-Pakistan tensions.

Government and International Response

India responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, downgrading diplomatic ties with Pakistan, closing the Attari border, and expelling Pakistani attaches. Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Shah led security reviews, while an all-party meeting was convened. Internationally, leaders like U.S. President Trump and UK PM Sunak condemned the attack, with Pakistan denying involvement, adding to diplomatic strain.

Implications

The attack threatens Kashmir’s tourism, a vital economic sector, and could escalate regional tensions, potentially leading to military or diplomatic retaliation. It raises questions about security lapses, with experts like Michael Kugelman suggesting kinetic or non-military responses, and Husain Haqqani warning of broader ramifications.

In detail view

introduction

On April 22, 2025, at 2:50 PM, the tranquil Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir became the site of a devastating terror attack, claiming 26 lives, predominantly tourists, and injuring at least 17 others. This incident, described as one of the deadliest civilian attacks since the 2019 revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, has thrust the region back into global headlines. Claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the attack has reignited debates over security, regional stability, and India-Pakistan relations. This survey note provides a detailed examination of the event, its background, perpetrators, responses, and implications, drawing on recent reports and expert analyses.

Event Details

The attack occurred in Pahalgam, a scenic town in the Anantnag district, known for its alpine meadows, pine forests, and popularity among tourists, especially during the summer season. Eyewitness accounts, as reported by The Hindu, described gunmen in military-style uniforms emerging from nearby forests and opening fire with M4 carbines and AK-47s. Survivors noted that the attackers targeted non-Muslims, asking victims to recite the kalma (Islamic declaration of faith) and checking for circumcisions to identify and spare Muslims, a tactic indicative of sectarian targeting. The death toll included 25 Indians from states like Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Odisha, Gujarat, Haryana, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh, plus one Nepalese national. Among the deceased were a 26-year-old Indian Navy officer and an Intelligence Bureau official, highlighting the attack’s impact on security personnel. At least 17 were wounded, with some in critical condition, as per Al Jazeera.

Background and Historical Context

Kashmir’s status as a contested region dates back to the 1947 partition of British India, with both India and Pakistan claiming it in full, leading to three wars and an ongoing insurgency since 1989. The Kashmir Valley, under Indian control, has been a hotspot for separatist violence, with tens of thousands killed in the conflict. In August 2019, India revoked Article 370, which granted special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir, splitting it into two union territories under direct New Delhi rule. This move, aimed at integrating Kashmir more fully into India, was met with protests and international criticism, as noted by The New York Times. Since then, violence had reportedly decreased, with tourism rebounding, but the Pahalgam attack has shattered this illusion of calm, underscoring persistent security challenges.

The attack’s timing, during the peak tourist season and ahead of the Amarnath Yatra pilgrimage, suggests a deliberate strategy to disrupt economic activity and send a political message. TRF’s claim of responsibility cited opposition to demographic changes, particularly the issuance of domicile certificates to over 85,000 non-locals since 2019, which they view as altering Kashmir’s demographic and cultural identity, as reported by Reuters.

Perpetrators and Motives

The Resistance Front (TRF), emerging in 2019 after the revocation of Article 370, is considered an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba and is believed to be backed by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). According to The Times of India, TRF has been involved in several attacks in Kashmir, targeting both security forces and civilians. The group claimed responsibility via social media, expressing discontent over the settlement of “outsiders” and accusing India of demographic engineering. Initial investigations, as per NDTV, suggest five to seven terrorists were involved, including local militants trained in Pakistan. The mastermind is believed to be Saifullah Kasuri, a Lashkar-e-Taiba commander, with Asif Fauji leading the operation on the ground. The attack’s targeting of tourists, particularly non-Muslims, aligns with TRF’s strategy to disrupt tourism, a key economic sector, and protest Indian policies, escalating tensions with Pakistan.

Government Response

The Indian government’s response was swift and multifaceted. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cutting short his visit to Saudi Arabia, chaired a high-level meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) on April 23, 2025, attended by Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, as reported by India Today. The CCS reviewed the security situation and directed forces to maintain high vigil. In a series of retaliatory measures, India announced:

• Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement governing water sharing, potentially impacting Pakistan’s irrigation, as per The Hindu.
• Downgrading diplomatic ties, reducing Pakistan High Commission staff in New Delhi from 55 to 30 by May 1, 2025, and recalling Indian diplomats.
• Closure of the Attari-Wagah border post, a key trade route, and cancellation of visas for Pakistani nationals.
• Expulsion of Pakistani military attaches, signaling a sharp diplomatic downgrade.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah visited Srinagar to review security, and an all-party meeting was convened on April 24, 2025, to discuss the situation, reflecting the government’s resolve to address the crisis, as noted by Livemint.

International Reactions

The attack drew global condemnation. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an X post (Rishi Sunak), expressed condolences and pledged support for India against terrorism. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in an X post (Rishi Sunak), condemned the attack, stating, “The barbaric attack in Pahalgam has stolen the lives of newlyweds, children, and families simply seeking joy. Our hearts break for them. To those mourning - know that the UK stands with you in sorrow and solidarity. Terror will never win. We grieve with India.” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also condemned the violence, emphasizing that attacks on civilians are unacceptable, as reported by Al Jazeera.

Pakistan denied involvement, with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi calling for restraint, but India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, in a press conference on April 23, 2025, highlighted “cross-border linkages,” implicating Pakistan, as per CNN.

Impact and Economic Consequences

The attack has significant implications for Kashmir’s economy, particularly tourism, which employs thousands and is a major revenue source. Pahalgam, a base camp for the Amarnath Yatra and known for trekking routes, may see a decline in visitors, impacting local livelihoods, as noted by The New York Times. Regionally, the attack has heightened tensions, with India’s measures like suspending the Indus Waters Treaty potentially affecting water security in Pakistan, risking further escalation. Security-wise, the attack raises questions about intelligence failures, with opposition leaders like Asaduddin Owaisi criticizing the Modi government, as reported by Hindustan Times.

Expert Analysis and Future Implications

Experts have provided insights into the attack’s significance. Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, suggested India might consider kinetic responses like airstrikes or drone attacks, similar to Uri (2016) and Balakot (2019), or non-military measures like ending the 2021 LoC truce, as per The Times of India. Husain Haqqani, former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S., likened it to Hamas’ October 7 strike, warning of “portentous ramifications,” indicating potential for broader conflict.

The timing, coinciding with U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India and Modi’s Saudi trip, suggests an intent to disrupt diplomatic outreach, drawing international focus to Kashmir. Future implications include increased violence, diplomatic fallout, and challenges to India’s integration efforts, with experts suggesting diplomatic isolation of Pakistan at the UN or FATF, cyber operations, and smart-border systems as possible responses.

Conclusion

The Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, is a stark reminder of Kashmir’s volatile security situation and the deep-seated India-Pakistan tensions. India’s robust response, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and downgrading ties, signals resolve, but risks escalation. As the region navigates this crisis, diplomatic efforts and international mediation are crucial to prevent further violence and seek a lasting peace, acknowledging the complexity and sensitivity of the issue.

Key Citations

• Pahalgam terror attack LIVE updates India puts Indus Water treaty in abeyance closes Attari post
• Attack on tourists kills 26 in Indian-administered Kashmir Police say
• Gunmen open fire on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir
• Killing of Civilians Near Pahalgam in Kashmir Shatters Illusion of Calm
• Will India avenge Pahalgam terror attack with jets drones or something new